Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Breaks $65 as Tensions Rise – $67 Next?

Oil and Gas Climb as Geopolitical Tensions Stoke Supply Fears

Oil prices just kept going up in Asian trading and had their best close since Jan 30 after both main benchmarks jumped 4%+ and the overall sentiment is that geopoltical tensions are making it more likely that there could be a supply disruption of oil.

Traders were most worried about key sea routes that handle 20% of all the worlds oil and that had them worried sick – its caused a right old mix up in the markets.

Diplomatic efforts are going slowly; no matter what the diplomats are saying, the sabre rattling has meant that traders are taking no chances and are building in higher risks to any trade. Meanwhile, in the US they just happened to have less oil in storage than anyone expected which has made lots of people nervous about where the next barrel of oil will come from.

It’s the same old problem with natural gas, prices are just treading water at the moment as people try to work out how secure the supply is going to be vs how much they think people are going to need of it.

Natural Gas Forecast: $3.00 Support Under Pressure

Natural Gas futures are trading around $3.02 on the 4-hour chart – hovering pretty precariously just above that short-term support band around $3.00. Price is really stuck, moving sideways below that 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3.33, while the 0.382 retracement at $2.67 is looking like a pretty big downside zone.

The recent candles aren’t showing too much in the way of real conviction – the bodies are small and the momentum just isn’t there – I reckon its the aftermath of that sharp run up to $4.38 that we’re seeing here.

The 50-period EMA is sitting near $3.20 and I think is acting like dynamic resistance – while the 200-period just sits lower around $2.50. If we see a break below $3.00, I think we might see $2.67 exposed – and if we see a recovery above $3.33, we might just open up $3.91 again.

Trade idea: Sell below $3.00 aiming for $2.67, get stopped out if price goes above $3.33.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $65 Breakout Targets $67 as Trendline Holds

WTI crude oil is trading around $65.23 on the 4-hour chart – just nudging past the $64.21 resistance level. And as we see it, price is continuing to respect the rising trendline that started from the low back at $56, which is probably why we’ve got an overall upward bias.

The 50-period EMA is sitting just below $63.30 and the 200-period is hanging out at around $62.20 – forming a nice support cluster right above our ascending trendline.

Next up, we’ve got resistance at $66.45, then $67.59. If we see a pullback, key support levels to keep an eye on would be $64.21, then $62.20. The RSI is pretty firm, but not as overbought as it could be.

Trade idea: Buy above $65.50 aiming for $66.45, get stopped out if price falls below $64.20.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast: $70 Break Clears Path to $72

Brent crude oil is trading around $70.50 on the 4-hour chart after pushing past the $69.77 resistance zone – and what a break that was. You can see in this recent candle its a right old beauty with a nice strong body and a big gap between the low and high – that confirms to me that momentum is firmly on the side of the bulls and the price is still above that rising trendline from the $63 base.

The EMA is sitting at $68.20 for 50-period, and the 200-period is just a bit lower at $66.90 – and as you can see, we’ve got layered support here. Resistance is at $71.33, then $72.16. If we see a pullback, keep an eye on $69.77 and $68.90 as key support levels. The general picture here is looking pretty good with higher highs and higher lows.

Trade idea: Buy on a pullback towards $69.80 – targeting $71.33, get stopped out if price falls below $68.90.