Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Holds Bullish Trend; Can Natural Gas Extend Above $3?

Oil News: U.S. Inventory Build Shifts Focus to Demand

On the oil side, prices are reacting to the latest U.S. inventory numbers and the persisting geopolitical backdrop. In the seven days through July 17, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million bbls to 411.7 million bbls, but remained 6% below the five-year seasonal average.

U.S. refineries were operating at 96.1% of throughput of 17.1 million bbls/d, while U.S. gasoline demand remained at 8.9 million bbls/d (averaged over the last four weeks), up 1% yr-over-yr. U.S. jet fuel demand climbed 9% yr-over-yr.

In the meantime, concerns over continued disruptions to Gulf crude oil flows kept the risk premium alive. This would lead some analysts to estimate a 1.5 million bbls/d oil deficit in 2026, although the supply is expected to recover and a 1.9 million bbls/d surplus is expected to prevail in 2027.

In the natural gas space, the fundamentals are healthy ahead of the latest EIA report on natural gas inventory. The working inventory level was 2,922 Bcf for the week through July 10. The data will be updated on July 23. With LNG export demand and stable power sector demand on the rise, the medium- to long-term demand outlook remains bright for U.S. natural gas.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Bulls Break Range Resistance, $3.03 Becomes the Next Target

After experiencing consolidation for the last few sessions, Natural Gas is now moving sideways higher. On the 4H chart, bulls appear to be back in the driver’s seat after some consolidation. NG is currently trading at $2.97, having broken above the previous $2.95 resistance level, though still testing the downward trendline below. However, it remains below $3.00, which is the 100-EMA.

The nearest resistance levels are at $3.03, then $3.09, and finally $3.15. NG has now broken above $2.95, which was acting as support on the downside earlier. NG is currently above the $2.93 50-EMA, and the next support level could be near $2.90, with additional support at $2.83. NG is currently above the $2.93 50-EMA. On the RSI indicator, bulls are in control at around 64, and NG looks ready for further gains.

The breakout of this choppy range is a bullish move. Once NG moves above $2.95, the likelihood of an upward move is higher, with initial target levels at $3.03, then $3.09, and finally $3.15. NG can correct back to $2.95 if it fails to sustain above that level, or even go down to $2.90 in the short term.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: USOIL Holds Uptrend Channel, Bulls Target $88.60

WTI is looking bullish on the 2H chart, currently trading in an uptrend channel after rebounding from the previous $85.87 level. As of this review, USOIL is trading at $88.16. On the technical side, the price is above $84.25, which is the 50-EMA on the 2H chart. The 100-EMA is located at $81.47, further confirming a healthy uptrend.

On the RSI, bulls remain in control at around 66, though we are close to the $88.61 resistance. Once the price breaches that level, the next target is $90.73, then $92.52. Support is available at the $85.87 pivot point, followed by $83.13 and $81.07.

The uptrend will continue as long as the price trades above the $85.87 level. If it does move up further, it can test the $90.70 area. Otherwise, a correction lower to $83.13 is the next possibility, followed by support at the 100-EMA.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis: UKOIL Consolidates Near Highs, Uptrend Remains Intact

Brent crude is moving inside its uptrend channel on the 2H chart, having risen from the lows back in mid-July. UKOIL is currently at around $95.98, trading below the nearest resistance at $97.61, and has consolidated a bit. In terms of trend structure, price is above the $90.70 50-EMA as well as the $87.15 100-EMA on the 2H chart.

Price has found some resistance at the $97.61 level, and the next key resistance level is at $99.17. The support level is at $95.49, followed by $92.93, and then $90.62. On the RSI indicator, bulls are in control and the price looks ready for an upward move as the indicator remains at around 69.

As long as the price trades above $95.49, a further move higher is still the likely direction. If this area can be breached, $99.17 will be in play. However, it is also possible for the price to correct down as the uptrend is quite high in terms of bullish sentiment. A break below $95.49 can see the price go down to $92.93 before the uptrend resumes.