Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Pulls Back to $98.75 as Brent Stays Resilient — NatGas Eyes Breakout?

Oil & Natural Gas Markets Trade On Fundamentals; Ceasefire Holds

US, European benchmark crude oil prices were relatively stable on May 14, 2026 as the conditional US/Iran ceasefire continues to stand with incremental progress on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the truce passed the one-month threshold. The agreement has largely removed the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed crude oil to its peak during March and early April, so the focus shifted to a fundamental based market of supply and demand.

WTI and Brent are both trading in a more balanced market environment where supply has come back to levels seen in the first quarter of the year thanks to strong US production levels and OPEC+ policy shifts as well as repairs being done in the affected areas. Supply has been stabilized as Iranian and regional output remains at reduced levels with production and repairs still incomplete. Demand is slowly picking up following the higher prices earlier in 2026 but consumers in emerging markets are still price sensitive.

Prices on natural gas were largely unchanged in response to steady storage build across the US and Europe with milder spring weather patterns. The ceasefire is alleviating the pressure on shipping from the Middle East and international LNG spot markets are also softer despite strong long-term demand in Asia and Europe.

Inventory data this week and the next OPEC+ meeting will be watched with interest as the truce remains a fragile agreement and can break at any time if negotiations fall apart or if the truce terms are not honored.

Natural Gas Futures Reclaims $2.93 – Descending Channel Resistance

Natural Gas futures are currently at $2.934 on the 4-hour NYMEX exchange, which is a bounce from the $2.78 low where the green candles reclaimed the red MA, which is around $2.89. Price respects the lower white descending channel, and at the time of the Fib confluence, bullish rejection. The RSI is above 55 confirming a shift in momentum over the short-term as price creates a base.

Recent highs continue to emerge as the chart holds higher lows, which the blue trendline is supporting with only a minor influence. $2.936 to $2.944 are the next obstacles of interest as this is the upper limit of this descending channel, and volume backs this move with buyers absorbing supply.

Price remains above $2.81 and this bullish structure is fighting the longer-term downtrend spanning several weeks.

Trade Idea: Buy $2.934, take profits at $2.944, stop loss $2.88.

WTI Crude Oil Dips to $98.75 – Blue Channel Support Tested

On the 4-hour timeframe, WTI crude is currently trading at $98.75, having retreated on red candles from the $101.57 peak to revisit the bottom boundary of the blue ascending channel and the red 50-period moving average around $99. While the more recent bearish engulfing candle from the $99.30 mark breached the short-term trend higher, it found a base at $98.38, which marks the most recent swing low. The 38.2% retracement of that May swing projects $98.00 to $97.50 as the next downside concentration point.

The RSI is under 48, confirming the loss in bullish momentum, and any bounce up to $100.65 will encounter resistance from the white descending trendline connecting the April highs. The volume profile shows $100 as an untested and therefore “failed” fair value level where sellers are in control. Below $99.60, the structure is weakening inside the broader price correction contained within the larger rising channel from the April lows.

Trade Idea: Sell $98.75, take profits at $97.50, stop loss $99.60.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $107 – Ascending Channel Resilience

On the 4-hour chart, Brent Crude trades at $107.32, holding the lower blue ascending channel line after a rejection of the $107.99 high. The green wicks of rejection maintain position above the 0.382 Fib level of $103.26, which confirms higher lows.

Meanwhile, the red moving average close to $106 supports price action and the overall respect for this channel structure dating to April.

RSI sits at around 50 in neutral territory. From there, upside will test at 0.5 Fib of $105.55 and then the $107.85 to $111.09 projection. A look at the volume profile shows $107 as an area of significance, and the chart shows buyers buying on dips in the $100s. The uptrending channel remains open from above $103.24.

Trade Idea: Buy $107.30, take profits at $107.85, stop loss $106.40.