Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Trump-Xi Summit + Hot CPI — Gold Crashes Below $4,600, Silver Below $78?

Gold and Silver Steady as Trump-Xi Summit and U.S. Inflation Data Shape Outlook

Traders backed into gold and silver on May 15, 2026, with some degree of purpose as the results of the important Trump-Xi summit came to light, as did the latest higher than expected U.S. inflation data.

The cease fire between the U.S. and Iran, over a month old as of this writing, remains intact and there has been steady progress on the tanker route via the Strait of Hormuz. These factors, among others, have helped reduce the acute geopolitical risk premium that had supported safe-haven flows earlier this year.

Demand for precious metals from the Central Banks has not wavered. For well over 17 months, the People’s Bank of China has purchased gold, along with other emerging nations. Silver is still facing the supply shortfall while safe haven demand fades, and industrial demand from solar, EV, and technology industries remains healthy.

The Trump-Xi negotiations, covering trade, technology cooperation, rare earth minerals, and potential alignment on Iran, are being closely monitored. If the meetings prove positive, then we may yet see the price decline in the precious metals reverse course.

Gold Spot Crashes Below $4,600: Blue Descending Channel Breakdown

At press time, Gold Spot is trading at $4,559.34 on the 4h timeframe. Price just printed a decisive red candle that took out the floor of the blue descending channel, the red 50ma, and the $4,638 .5 Fib zone. Strong distribution and selling have accelerated lower following a bearish engulfing candle that closed from the $4,718 high in violation of the higher low structure.

Price now aims for the .786 Fib at $4,561 that was briefly defended and next targets the 1.0 extension level at $4,503. The RSI fell below 40 which confirms the loss of upside momentum in Gold without seeing an oversold bounce at this time. Volume profile shows that the range from $4,680 to $4,697 was fair value that has now been rejected in favor of sellers below. Expect sellers to cap any relief rally at the white descending trendline from April around $4,671. The structure is definitely bearish below $4,638 while within the extended down-channel.

Trade Idea: Sell $4,559 targeting $4,503 with a stop at $4,597.

Silver Spot Plunges Below $78: Rising Channel Breakdown

At press time, Silver Spot is trading at $78.23 on the 4h timeframe. Price fell to close a sharp bearish red candles below the white ascending trendline that offered support as well as the price action of the red ma at near $80 and the .5 Fib at $80.79. A series of several bearish engulfing bodies printing in from the $87.12 high have confirmed distribution and kept the lower lows intact.

Lower in price will now lead Silver towards the Fib extension zone between $76.15 to $74.94. The RSI dropped below 35 which signals an increase in bearish momentum. The volume profile showed $82 to $84 was fair value that is now being rejected in favor of supply and sellers. Sellers will likely cap the first move towards minor support at the blue trendline near $76.50. The structure is negative below the price action and MA resistance at $80. Price is negative while rejecting the rising channel established in early May.

Trade Idea: Sell $78.23 targeting $76.15 with a stop at $79.00.