Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Under $70 While Brent Tests $73 — NatGas Channel Momentum?

Oil and Gas Markets Balance Expanding Supply with Steady Demand

June 25th oil fundamentals were marked by OPEC + discipline in conjunction with growing non-OPEC oil supplies with U.S. production in the lead. Global demand has been supported by high refinery runs in major consumption zones from transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks as well as seasonal summer driving in the northern hemisphere. In key markets crude stocks moved with modest seasonal draws while balances between supply and offtake were largely supported by high refinery runs. U.S. crude stocks were essentially flat in the most recent weeks as working stockpiles at operating hubs were near minimums with downstream demand remaining firm as the economy continues to grow.

Natural gas fundamentals are driven by record-high production levels in the United States. Dry gas supplies were driven by associated production and new gas plays while U.S. LNG plants were running at maximum capacity following maintenance outages and supplying strong volumes to international destinations. Gas in storage has been accumulating at a steady pace over the injection season keeping levels well above the 5-year average. U.S. consumption is variable depending on weather while industrial needs are relatively constant.

Natural Gas Futures Rise to $3.244 – Ascending Channel Maintains Bullish Momentum on the 4H Chart

Natural Gas is at $3.244 on 4H NYMEX Chart. Some bullish and bearish candlesticks are hovering above the 50MA around $3.18 staying within the blue ascending channel. From $3.099 swing low, bullish rejection candlesticks show interest from buyers to come back lower.

As the RSI is around 52, this setup is neutral to bullish. On volume profile, $3.12 is acting as a pivot and support point and the range of $3.247 to $3.321 forms the Fibonacci extension level. This setup is a bullish one on higher highs and higher lows since $3.099 where buyers have been buying pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy at $3.244, targeting $3.321, with a stop-loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Crashes to $69.36 – Triangle Breakdown Extends Bearish Momentum on the 4H Chart

WTI Crude Oil is at $69.36 on the 4H Chart. A pair of strong bearish continuation candles pierced the triangle support zone near $85.75 after the price was rejected from the 50MA. The presence of the series of lower highs since $104.45 and the heavy bearish engulfing candlesticks on a large scale highlights the seller pressure as the price dives further into the range between the Fibonacci extension level of $63.01 to $56.12.

As the RSI is hovering below 40, the selling momentum is strong, while the $78 to $85 volume profile zone reflects rejection zone, which was the fair value in previous but now it is dominated by sellers. A sloping resistance line also limits any rally. Everything stays bearish below $85.75 inside the descending channel from the 4H high of $116. The typical lower highs and lower lows pattern continues to provide an edge for sellers.

Trade Idea: Sell at $69.36, targeting $63.01, with a stop-loss at $72.00.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $72.89 – Descending Channel Support Encourages Stabilization on the 4H Chart

Brent Crude Oil is at $72.89 on 4H Chart. Several bullish and bearish candlesticks have reached the descending channel’s base around $72.89 after leaving the 50MA near $85.63. The bullish rejection candlesticks indicate the presence of buyers and they are supporting the selling, limiting further decline.

As the RSI is staying around 50, it is a neutral setup. Volume says that $75 to $78 zone is forming the initial fair value zone and the next resistance zone is around $82.44 to $85.00. Despite the long-term downtrend, structure is neutral or bullish in case of support of descending channel, and higher lows continue to attract buyers on pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy at $72.89, targeting $82.44, with a stop-loss at $71.00.