Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas tumbled 10 points to trade at 2.337 ahead of today’s inventory release which is expected to show continued gains in stocks, while cold systems are forecast across the US which should help support prices. In an unusual move the Energy Information Administration revised its inventory data to show natural-gas inventories rose by 54 billion cubic feet to a record high of 3.985 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 6. The revision increased the previously reported stockpile level by 7 bcf because of a change in the agency’s methodology.

The revised number pushes stockpiles closer to the psychologically important 4 tcf mark and increases fears that natural-gas storage facilities could run out of room to store the fuel. Mild weather has reduced demand for the heating fuel in recent weeks, leading to larger-than-average storage builds. Gas stockpiles are likely to enter the winter holding more than 4 trillion cubic feet for the first time. The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts shows a forecast of 17 bcf added to storage during the week that ended Friday, a time of year when stockpiles usually start to drain.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 19-25th: A strong weather system will track into the East today with heavy rain and thunderstorms. More importantly, it will open the door for colder systems across the northern and eastern US this weekend into early next week that will bring many US regions dropping below freezing, along with snowfall across the Great Lakes and interior northeast. The Western US will be mostly mild and dry this weekend, apart from the Northwest where a Pacific system will push inland early next week with widespread valley rains and mountain snows, including across California. Overall demand will increase to HIGH Saturday-Thursday then back to MODERATE.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)