Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 23, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  continued its decline giving up 66 points to trade at 2.210 after an unexpected climb in inventory and an upgrade of the winter forecast showing warmer temperatures than previous called for.  Stockpiles swelled to 4 trillion cubic feet for the first time. Gas futures tumbled to a one-week low.

Inventories expanded by 15 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday. Analyst estimates projected a gain of 19 billion while a survey of users predicted an increase of 20 billion. Storage levels had already touched record highs in the first week of November.

Prices are down 21 percent this year, the biggest year-to-date decline since 2011, as climbing supplies outpace demand and as unusually mild weather delay the start of the peak heating season. Money managers earlier this month held a record net-short position in gas contracts.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 19-25th: A strong weather system will track into the East today with heavy rain and thunderstorms. More importantly, it will open the door for colder systems across the northern and eastern US this weekend into early next week that will bring many US regions dropping below freezing, along with snowfall across the Great Lakes and interior northeast. The Western US will be mostly mild and dry this weekend, apart from the Northwest where a Pacific system will push inland early next week with widespread valley rains and mountain snows, including across California. Overall demand will increase to HIGH Saturday-Thursday then back to MODERATE

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)