Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas gained by 21 points to trade at 4.044 ahead of today’s inventory. Weather forecasts turned colder for the near

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas gained by 21 points to trade at 4.044 ahead of today’s inventory. Weather forecasts turned colder for the near term helping to spark a buying rally. Natural gas gained on speculation that a government report will show a triple-digit gain in U.S. inventories, narrowing a deficit before the start of cold-weather demand. A midday update to the government’s Global Forecast System weather model showed mostly cooler to lower-than-average temperatures in the eastern and central U.S. from Oct. 6 through Oct. 15, compared with earlier forecasts showing warmer weather in those regions.

The Energy Information Administration report, may show that stockpiles climbed by 107 billion cubic feet in the seven days ended Sept. 26, compared with the five-year average increase of 85 billion for the week, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Supplies the previous week were 13 percent below average.

Liquefied natural gas projects face delays or even cancellation as global demand growth slows and U.S. output increases, according to Goldman Sachs. Global demand for LNG will grow 5 percent on an annual compound basis by 2020, and 4 percent by 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts including Mark Wiseman in Sydney said in a report e-mailed today. The bank previously forecast growth of 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Even the U.S., where Goldman expects final approval for more than 40 million metric tons of new gas production annually over the coming years, will not be spared from the pull-back, Goldman said. Advanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing have made the U.S. the world’s largest producer.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Building Approvals	3.0%	1.0%	2.1%
AUD	Trade Balance	-0.787B	-0.700B	-1.075B
EUR	Spanish Unemployment	19.7K	31.3K	8.1K
GBP	Construction PMI (Sep)	64.2	63.5	64.0
EUR	Interest Rate Decision		0.05%	0.05%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		297K	293K
*EUR*	*ECB Press Conference*
USD	Factory Orders (MoM)		-9.3%	10.5%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	Services PMI (Sep)		59.1	60.5
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)		215K	142K
USD	Unemployment Rate		6.1%	6.1%
USD	ISM Non-Mfg. PMI		58.5	59.6