Natural Gas News: Bulls Defend Key Support as Forecast Signals Cooling Demand Today

Natural Gas Futures Attempt Rebound as Bulls Eye Key Resistance Levels

U.S. natural gas futures edged higher at mid-session Monday, signaling potential bullish momentum following a successful defense of key short-term support. After testing the retracement zone between $2.947 and $2.887 late last week, prices rebounded from Friday’s low of $2.897, a level now shaping up as a potential secondary higher bottom in the market structure.

Bulls are looking to convert this into a near-term rally toward the $3.198 top, but they must first clear the 50-day moving average at $3.147. Bears, however, remain in play, looking to sell into strength and drive prices back through support, with a downside target at the $2.695–$2.647 range. The near-term battle lines are clearly drawn, with momentum hinging on whether the market can reclaim the 50-day average and push through the recent top.

At 16:50 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.004, up $0.063 or +2.14%.

Will Seasonal Weather Patterns Support the Bulls?

Weather forecasts offer mixed signals for demand. NatGasWeather expects high pressure to dominate much of the U.S. this week, keeping highs in the 80s and 90s across the interior and Southwest. These conditions will boost cooling demand in the short term, though national demand is forecast to ease significantly over the weekend as northern states cool into the 60s and 70s.

This pattern translates to moderate demand early in the week, tapering off to light demand by the weekend — a setup that could cap rallies unless weather-driven demand persists longer than expected.

Is Surging Production Offsetting Demand Gains?

Supply remains a limiting factor for bullish sentiment. U.S. dry gas production continues to hover near 107 Bcf/d, keeping upward pressure on storage and tempering the impact of late-season heat.

The latest EIA storage report showed a 71 Bcf injection for the week ending September 5, bringing total inventories to 3,343 Bcf. While stocks remain 38 Bcf below last year, they sit 188 Bcf above the five-year average — a bearish overhang that looms over any short-term rallies unless demand materially exceeds expectations.

What’s the Near-Term Setup for Natural Gas Futures?

The short-term setup leans neutral-to-bearish with risks skewed lower if bulls fail to retake the $3.147 moving average. The defense of $2.887 was a critical hold, but without strong follow-through — particularly if weekend demand proves weak — prices could slip back toward $2.695.

For now, natural gas remains rangebound, with traders watching the $3.147–$3.198 zone for bullish breakout confirmation, and $2.887 as the key level to prevent further downside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.