Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Fed Path Puts Spotlight on Crucial $4133.95 Pivot

Gold Price Holds Firm as Traders Reprice December Fed Cut

So here’s where we ended the week: Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at $4,065.01, off just 0.51%, and honestly, the metal held up better than it had any right to. We had hawkish-leaning Fed minutes, a blowout delayed jobs report, and a dollar that refused to back off. Yet sellers never gained full control — a sign there’s still real money buying dips, even if nobody’s chasing the upside right now.

Fed Split Keeps Gold Traders Guessing

The big story was the Fed minutes, and traders definitely felt the shift. Yes, a majority still talked up rate cuts, but the key line was the hesitation around December. Some officials were ready to stay put for the rest of the year — a clean hit to anyone leaning on easing bets.

The market reacted fast. A month ago, we had almost 99% conviction on a December cut. By week’s end? 32%. That’s a full repricing, and you could see it in gold’s intraday whips. Buyers stepped in early on softer real yields, but once traders processed the minutes, the tone cooled. Higher-for-longer always raises the opportunity cost for holding gold, and you could feel that hesitation creeping into Thursday’s flow.

Jobs Data Comes in Hot — And the Market Felt It

Thursday’s long-delayed September payrolls number landed at 119,000, versus expectations near 50,000. Even with revisions and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate, the headline was strong enough to reinforce the Fed’s caution.

For gold traders, the takeaway was simple: the labor market isn’t cracking. The Fed doesn’t have to rush. And that kept sellers pressing on Thursday and Friday. Nothing aggressive — just steady pressure as the cut odds softened.

Dollar Strength Puts a Ceiling on the Gold Market

The dollar added another headwind, with the DXY ticking up to 100.395. Not a huge move day-to-day, but enough to lean on gold given the broader one-month dollar recovery. Every time gold tried to lift, the greenback was there, capping the move. You could feel traders respecting that ceiling.

Central Banks Still Provide the Floor

The piece keeping gold supported? Central banks. 720+ tonnes accumulated year-to-date is no joke. This is price-insensitive buying. It’s the floor under the market, and it’s why dips aren’t sticking even when U.S. data comes in hot.

Gold Price Forecast: Bias Soft, But Not Broken

Heading into next week, gold still looks range-bound with a slight bearish lean. The Fed repricing and stronger jobs data argue for more short-term pressure. But unless the dollar rips higher or the market prices out December cuts entirely, sellers probably won’t get a clean break lower.

Bottom line: gold isn’t in rally mode, but the floor remains solid. A softer data print or renewed rate-cut chatter could flip the bias quickly — buyers are clearly still in the weeds, waiting.

Technically, XAUUSD is being blocked by the short-term pivot at $4133.95. A sustained move over it will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for an attempted breakout over $4245.20, which is the only barrier before the record high at $4381.44.

A sustained move under $4133.95 will mean that sellers are in control. They are targeting a steeper break into the retracement zone at $3846.50 to $3720.25. As long as we’re holding the 52-week moving average at $3277.75, the market will be in an uptrend. This means a pullback into the retracement zone could offer a buy the dip opportunity.

Essentially, with the main trend up, traders will be offered buy strength or buy the dip opportunities. The tone of the market will be determined by trader reaction to $4133.95.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.