Alcoa Sees First Outlier Signal in Years, More Ahead?

AA is a global leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. The company’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 report showed net income of $232 million (up from $164 million the prior quarter), production records at five smelters, $786 million from a joint venture sale, and a strategic partnership with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. The company reports again on Jan. 22.

No wonder AA shares are up almost 70% in the last year. MoneyFlows data shows how Big Money investors are again betting heavily on the stock.

Big Money Melting for Alcoa

Institutional volumes reveal plenty. In the last year, AA has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.

Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in AA shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:

Plenty of materials names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Alcoa.

Alcoa Fundamental Analysis

Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, AA has had strong sales growth and offers a favorable valuation:

• 1-year sales growth rate (+13.8%)
• Forward price-earnings ratio (+15.4x)

Source: FactSet

Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +1.2%.

Now it makes sense why the stock has been generating Big Money interest. AA has a track record of strong financial performance.

Marrying great fundamentals with MoneyFlows software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.

Alcoa has been a top-rated stock at MoneyFlows. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

It just made the rare Outlier 20 inflow report for the first time since a Big Money outlier outflow signal in January 2024. The blue bar below shows when AA was a top pick…Big Money is back:

Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.

This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.

Alcoa Price Prediction

The AA action isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in AA at the time of publication.

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