Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Flash Weekly Bearish Signal as Demand Remains Fragile

Russian Supply Returns Quickly and Erases Early Risk Premium

Crude oil futures ended the week lower, with WTI settling at $58.06, down 3.30%, as early geopolitical support faded. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and export infrastructure initially injected a risk premium into the market, but Russia restored loadings from the Novorossiysk terminal faster than traders expected, bringing back roughly 2% of global supply. That rapid return erased much of the upward momentum that began the week.

China Stockpiling and U.S. Sanctions Deliver Mixed Fundamental Signals

Traders tracked the rollout of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, aimed at tightening financial pressure on Moscow. Analysts noted that Russia has historically adapted by rerouting cargoes, limiting the immediate market impact.

At the same time, China continued accelerating crude stockpiling, absorbing surplus barrels as refinery runs remained below available supply. This buying helped stabilize balances even as broader surplus concerns persisted.

Inventory Data Sends Conflicting Signals on U.S. Fuel Demand

Midweek sentiment shifted toward U.S. inventory data. API figures signaled a bearish rise in crude and products, but the EIA reported a stronger-than-expected 3.4-million-barrel crude draw.

However, gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the first time in more than a month. That combination suggested softer U.S. fuel demand heading into late November, reinforcing cautious positioning despite the supportive crude draw.

Peace Framework Discussions and Stronger Dollar Drive Late-Week Selling

Late-week selling accelerated after reports indicated Washington was encouraging Kyiv to consider a draft peace framework with Moscow. Traders viewed the prospect as potentially easing sanction pressure on Russian supply over time.

A stronger U.S. dollar—driven by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut—added further pressure, making crude more expensive for non-U.S. buyers and deepening the late-week selloff.

Weekly Technical Picture: Trend Remains Under Pressure

Light crude futures settled the week lower, with the main trend still pointed lower. The broader market structure is controlled by resistance at the 52-week moving average at $62.10, which continues to cap any meaningful recovery efforts. Minor resistance sits at $58.23 and $59.39, and maintaining trade below these levels keeps downward pressure intact.

The weekly profile continues to lean toward a test of the October 20 main bottom at $55.91 and the May 30 main bottom at $55.22. A break through $55.22 would act as a trigger for accelerated selling based on the weekly trend structure.

Market Forecast: Short-Term Bias Remains Bearish

With Russian supply restored, U.S. demand signals uneven, and geopolitical developments raising expectations of looser supply constraints moving forward, the weekly outlook remains bearish.

Traders will need to see a sustained move above $59.39 to signal improving momentum capable of pulling prices toward the 52-week moving average, but until that occurs, sellers maintain control, while targeting $55.91 to $55.22 this week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.