Natural Gas News: Futures Rebound Today on 200-Day MA Support and Light Weather Demand

Natural Gas Futures Bounce After Technical Support Holds and Traders Reposition

U.S. natural gas futures rose early Tuesday after technical support held near the 200-day moving average, prompting bargain hunters and short-covering ahead of key contract expirations.

The June Nymex contract rebounded after testing critical levels, with traders recalibrating positions amid shifting near-term weather expectations and market catalysts.

At 14:04 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.301, up $0.188 or +6.04%.

Did Support at the 200-Day Moving Average Trigger the Bounce?

After four straight sessions of losses, natural gas futures found support at $3.107, narrowly above Monday’s $3.098 low and just ahead of the April 24 swing bottom at $3.035. That rebound came after an attempted breakdown below the 200-day moving average at $3.163 failed, triggering buying interest.

Resistance now sits overhead at $3.438, presenting the next technical hurdle for bulls. The strong reaction off key support suggests traders were waiting for a retracement to enter on the long side, capitalizing on discounted prices.

Weather Outlook Points to Weak Near-Term Demand

The May 19–25 forecast shows a mixed weather pattern. Systems are moving across the northern two-thirds of the country, keeping highs in the 50s–70s, while the South sees early-week warmth in the 80s–90s. However, a transition midweek will bring cooling to much of the East and Midwest, just as a hot ridge forms out West with highs in the 70s–100s.

Despite the brief southern heat, overall national demand is projected to remain light through the week. The most recent weather model revisions trended cooler for late May into early June, boosting heating degree days (HDDs), though this late-season increase adds limited demand. Cooling degree days (CDDs) drop off after a brief early-week spike, muting overall bullish weather signals.

How Are Traders Positioning Ahead of Memorial Day and Contract Expiration?

Much of the current movement appears driven more by positioning than fundamentals. Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics highlighted that prices are likely to remain heavily influenced by trader positioning heading into the Memorial Day holiday, as well as the expiration of the June contract.

With options expiration and final settlement approaching next week, market participants are adjusting exposure, contributing to short-term volatility and price swings. Bargain buying and short covering are helping to stabilize the front-month contract after a technically driven pullback.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Rebound Faces Resistance

The technical bounce above key support, combined with short-term positioning and contract-related flows, points to a mildly bullish near-term outlook. However, weather-related demand remains weak, and any rally will likely face resistance near $3.438 unless fundamentals materially improve. Traders should monitor weather updates, especially CDD forecasts, and watch for positioning flows leading into the long weekend and contract expiry.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.