Natural Gas News: Futures Stall Below 50-Day MA as Traders Brace for EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Traders Brace for EIA Storage Data to Confirm Bearish Bias

Natural gas futures are inching higher early Thursday, but the real story is yet to come. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report, and traders are betting it could be the deciding factor for near-term direction.

Price is currently pinned just below the 50-day moving average at $3.878 — a key technical level. A soft storage number could spark a breakout, but a heavier-than-expected build could slam the door on this bounce and send prices lower.

At 14:01 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.882, up $0.067 or +1.76%.

Market Expects a Build Above the Seasonal Norm

The consensus is for a +74 Bcf injection for the week ending October 24 — larger than the 5-year average of +67 Bcf. If confirmed, this would mark the second straight above-average build, following last week’s +87 Bcf. Inventories are already 4.5% above the five-year seasonal average, underscoring that storage remains more than adequate heading into winter. With production near record highs, the storage data is keeping the pressure on prices.

Production Growth Undermines Bullish Sentiment

Dry gas output remains elevated at 106.9 Bcf/day, up 3.2% year-on-year, according to BloombergNEF. U.S. natural gas rigs are holding at 121 — just below a two-year high — and LNG export flows sit at a strong 16.7 Bcf/day, but not high enough to tighten balances meaningfully. The supply picture remains heavy, and unless demand ramps up materially, traders are unlikely to support sustained rallies.

Technical Levels Matter — But Storage Will Drive the Move

The market is straddling a key retracement zone from $3.803 to $3.867. The 50-day moving average at $3.878 remains the barrier to watch. A close above it could clear the way for a push to $3.946. But if the storage number leans bearish and price breaks below $3.803, sellers could press toward $3.572 — yesterday’s low — with a gap fill near $3.748 in play.

Outlook: Bearish Bias Holds Unless Storage Misses to the Downside

The market has seen a modest bounce off last week’s lows, but there’s no conviction behind it yet. Traders are watching today’s EIA print for confirmation. If the build exceeds expectations, the selling pressure likely returns. Unless the number surprises to the low side, the tone stays defensive — and the path of least resistance remains down.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.