Natural Gas News: Futures Stall Today as 200-Day Average Becomes Key Market Pivot

Natural Gas Futures Pull Back After Fresh High as Traders Watch 200-Day Moving Average

U.S. natural gas futures are trading slightly lower at mid-session Wednesday after an early attempt to extend Tuesday’s rally stalled. The market briefly pushed through the previous session’s high but failed to attract follow-through buying, prompting a modest pullback as traders assessed warmer weather forecasts, strong production trends, and Thursday’s EIA storage report.

At 17:24 GMT, U.S. Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.500, down $0.065 or -1.42%.

Warmer Weather Pressures Near-Term Demand Outlook

Traders remain focused on shifting temperature patterns, which are softening short-term demand expectations. According to NatGasWeather, a cold front that swept through the eastern U.S. earlier this week has now exited, with temperatures expected to rebound into the 50s to 80s through early next week. This has pulled national demand down from high to light levels, contributing to today’s intraday selling pressure.

Market Testing Key Technical Levels Following Breakout

Earlier in the session, natural gas futures attempted to build on Tuesday’s rally by pushing through a multi-month high. However, the move lost momentum when buyers failed to show up in force. Despite the pullback, the market remains above the 200-day moving average at $4.453, a key technical level that could determine whether the rally continues.

A sustained move above the 200-day MA could trigger a surge into the next major upside target near $4.717, a main top. On the flip side, a break below $4.453 would signal renewed selling pressure. If that break is confirmed, downside momentum could drive prices lower toward a pair of 50% retracement levels at $4.167 and $4.089.

Trader reaction to the 200-day MA is likely to set the tone heading into Thursday’s session.

Record Output Continues as Producers Tighten Costs

Production remains strong, with the EIA projecting dry gas output will rise to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, up from 103.2 bcfd in 2024. Demand — including exports — is expected to climb to 115.7 bcfd next year. LNG feed gas demand is already near record highs, and domestic use continues to expand due to power generation and industrial demand.

Major producers are growing volumes while cutting costs. Expand Energy led all firms with 7.33 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (bcfed) in Q3 and has increased its 2025 output target. EQT pulled 6.89 bcfed in Q3 and plans to produce slightly more next year while reducing capex. Coterra Energy also raised its 2025 gas supply guidance as drilling costs in the Marcellus dropped 24% from a year ago.

Short-Term Forecast: Cautiously Bullish

Despite today’s intraday pullback, natural gas futures remain structurally strong after breaking out to a new multi-month high and reclaiming the 200-day moving average.

Short-term weather may limit upside for now, but the longer-term trend is supported by robust production efficiency and growing demand. A firm hold above $4.453 could open the door to further gains, with $4.717 in sight if bullish momentum resumes.

Traders will be watching the 200-day average closely, along with the upcoming EIA storage report, for near-term direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.