Natural Gas News: Market Eyes 200-Day Moving Average in Bearish Technical Forecast

Natural Gas Slips for Fourth Straight Session as Traders Eye $3.154 Support

U.S. natural gas futures are lower for a fourth consecutive session on Friday, moving closer to the 200-day moving average at $3.154. This key level previously held firm during the April 24 pullback to $3.035 and now stands as the next area of potential support. Prices remain under pressure from soft short-term demand forecasts and a slightly bearish storage build, though a sharp drop in renewable output offered some offset.

AT 13:39 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.396, up $0.034 or +1.01%.

Can the 200-Day Moving Average Hold as Support Again?

Futures are now testing the 200-day moving average, with no immediate sign of buying strength. Above the market, resistance begins at a minor pivot at $3.438, followed by the 50-day moving average at $3.800 and major pivots at $3.733 and $4.062. The technical picture remains capped unless prices break through these overhead levels.

EIA Storage Build Lands Near Expectations but Above Normal

The EIA reported a storage injection of 110 Bcf for the week ending May 9, slightly above consensus estimates and notably higher than the five-year average. Total storage now stands at 2,255 Bcf, which is 57 Bcf above the five-year average but still 375 Bcf below year-ago levels. Regionally, the South Central added 40 Bcf, and the East and Midwest regions together accounted for 60 Bcf of the total. The build reflects moderate weather-driven demand and a 30% drop in wind power generation, which may have marginally increased gas-fired generation.

Weather Forecasts Signal Tepid Demand Across Key U.S. Regions

According to NatGasWeather, demand is expected to stay light to moderate through May 21. While Texas remains hot with highs in the 90s and 100s, much of the rest of the country, including the West, Midwest, and East, will experience showers and seasonal temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s. This setup limits the potential for strong cooling demand in the near term, further capping upside for natural gas prices.

Will Storage Surplus and Mild Weather Keep Bulls on the Sidelines?

With storage above the five-year average and forecasts showing no immediate weather catalysts, the market looks poised to test lower levels unless new bullish drivers emerge. Traders will be watching whether the 200-day moving average near $3.154 can halt the selloff. A decisive break below this level could expose support closer to $3.00.

Near-term bias remains bearish as fundamentals continue to favor sellers and technical resistance builds overhead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.