Natural Gas News: Prices Slip Today After EIA Report Meets Market Forecast

Natural Gas Slips as Storage Build Meets Expectations, Traders Watch Resistance Levels

U.S. natural gas futures are easing on Thursday following the release of the EIA’s latest storage report, which showed a build broadly in line with trader expectations. With prices recently bouncing off multi-month lows, market participants are weighing a moderate injection figure against persistent oversupply and mixed weather forecasts.

Is the EIA Storage Report Neutral for Prices?

The EIA reported a 55 Bcf build in working gas storage for the week ending August 29, taking total inventories to 3,272 Bcf. That’s 73 Bcf below last year but still 173 Bcf above the five-year average, signaling ample supply entering the shoulder season. The print landed well below consensus estimates for a 75 Bcf injection but remains comfortably above the seasonal norm of +36 Bcf, muting any bullish reaction.

Storage levels remain robust across all regions, with the South Central posting a modest 4 Bcf increase. The East and Midwest both added 28 Bcf, while the Pacific region saw a rare draw of 4 Bcf. The Mountain region was flat. While the report didn’t surprise, it underlines that the supply-demand balance remains tilted toward surplus.

How Is Weather and Demand Playing Into Price Action?

Recent gains in natural gas were driven by forecasts for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northern U.S. during the September 8–17 period. However, the near-term forecast (Sep 2–8) shows mild conditions across key demand regions, including the Midwest and Southeast, capping electricity-driven gas demand this week.

U.S. power output, however, has been a supportive factor. According to the Edison Electric Institute, electricity generation rose 7.7% y/y for the week ending August 23, contributing to firm cooling demand. Even so, it’s unclear how much of this is already priced in given near-record gas production.

Is Surging U.S. Production Overpowering Bullish Setups?

U.S. dry gas production remains near record highs, holding at 105.7 Bcf/day, up 3.3% y/y. LNG feedgas demand came in at 15.0 Bcf/day, slightly down week-over-week. Meanwhile, active U.S. natural gas rigs declined by three to 122 last week, just below the two-year high of 124 reached in early August. Although rig counts dipped, elevated output continues to weigh on any bullish momentum, especially as inventories remain healthy and demand has not spiked.

Where Are Prices Headed Next?

Technically, bulls are targeting resistance at $3.200, where the 50-day moving average converges with the 50% retracement level. On the downside, support is seen in the $2.880–$2.836 range. With weather support softening and production elevated, the market is leaning slightly bearish in the near term. Traders will likely need stronger demand signals or production declines to sustain a breakout above key resistance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.