Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Bears Eyeing Rallies to Short

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has fallen pretty significantly in the early part of the day, but we remain well within the same range that we have been in. The jobs number came out weaker than anticipated, and of course, Friday will be closed due to the fact that the Independence Day holiday is this weekend, and 3 days are typically what Americans use to celebrate. The Friday session will be very thin with a lack of liquidity so I am not expecting much here.

This is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back and forth with the $3 level as a short-term floor and the $3.50 level as a short-term ceiling. We are just kind of hanging around the 200-day EMA as well, and I think that is the range we continue to buy and sell in a very tight range, and ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but I do not know if we see a clear directionality.

Navigating Key Range Boundaries and Seasonal Weakness

If we were to break out to the upside and clear the $3.50 level, then signs of exhaustion I think, get sold into with the $4 level being a bit of a ceiling. If we break down below the $3 level, then the $2.75 level could be targeted, which I think would be supported.

I think this time of year is typically very weak, so I prefer to short the market, but I would not do it just anywhere. I would do it on signs of exhaustion after a short-term rally, perhaps on a short-term chart.

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