Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Suggests a Deeper Correction

Monday’s Breakdown

Natural gas confirmed bearish momentum Monday, collapsing below Friday’s $4.38 low and the 10-day moving average at $4.42 to reach a four-day low of $4.35. Price remains pinned near lows at writing, setting up a probable confirming close below $4.38—marking a second straight day of lower highs and lower lows.

Resistance Completion

The recent $4.69 trend high completed an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.64 while hitting the convergence of the 175% extended top channel line and the upper boundary of the small ascending channel. That session formed a bearish shooting star, activated on Friday’s drop, with today’s action triggering a small-channel breakdown.

Momentum Confirmation

The small channel had illustrated slowing bullish momentum into the 88.6% zone. The RSI has now rolled over from overbought territory, adding weight to a deeper corrective phase after the 10-day average—dynamic support since its October 20 reclaim—finally gave way.

Next Major Support

The 20-day average at $4.03 and rising is the immediate downside magnet, strengthened by recent clearance above the 38.2% retracement near $4.00. Further weakness targets the 50% retracement at $3.79, with the 61.8% zone and falling 200-day average near $3.50 as deeper possibilities.

Short-Term Levels

Last week’s $4.26 low provides minor weekly support; a decisive drop beneath it flips the weekly chart bearish. Additional reaction zones sit between $4.16–$4.09, encompassing a prior weekly high/low and the June $4.15 swing high.

Outlook

Today’s confirmed breakdown from the small channel and 10-day average shifts near-term control to sellers. Expect downward pressure to persist in the weeks ahead, with the 20-day/$4.00–$4.03 confluence as the first meaningful test. Only a swift reclaim of $4.42 would neutralize the bearish trigger; until then, risk skews toward $3.79 and lower.

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