Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakout Momentum Builds Above Support

Intraday Strength Holds Above Key Support

Natural gas retained strength on Thursday after a three-day low of $2.80 was established earlier in the session. It was followed by an intraday rebound off support near the 10-day moving average, leading to a high for the day at $2.92. Trading continues near the high of the day at writing, making a strong close in the top quarter of the day’s range likely.

This is bullish behavior, since another successful test of support near the 10-day average occurred, the short-term trend was retained, and it points to higher prices. The ability to hold above short-term support while consolidating near recent highs continues to reinforce the developing bullish structure.

50-Day Reclaim in Progress

Moreover, natural gas has been attempting to confirm a reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $2.85 for four days. A decisive rally above Tuesday’s high of $2.95, the current short-term trend high, would confirm that reclaim. That could be significant and lead to a spike in momentum since the 50-day average has marked dynamic resistance since it failed as support in late-January. It has been tested as resistance since the May 4 high at $2.88. This shows consistency and improving demand.

Breakout Targets and Fibonacci Extension Path

Initial upside targets start with the lower swing high at $3.06 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.12. Despite the potential for resistance near the $3.06 level, the larger developing pattern suggests that the Fibonacci level could easily be reached if buyers remain in control and a new upside breakout triggers.

Longer-Term Resistance Re-Test Framework

Nonetheless, an upswing to test resistance near prior long-term dynamic support looks increasingly likely, since that test has not yet occurred following the breakdown that triggered on February 17. There was a brief initial pullback after the breakdown, but not yet a larger-scale retest of resistance. This suggests that the higher target zone could eventually be reached, particularly if bullish momentum continues improving above the 50-day moving average.

In addition, the 200-day average aligned with the uptrend line today and will soon cross below it. It is now at $3.41 and falling, potentially identifying a key upside target zone for natural gas as the developing recovery trend continues to mature.

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