Natural Gas Price Forecast: Downward Pressure Targets $2.95

Sellers Maintain Grip on Price Action

Downward pressure hammered natural gas on Tuesday, driving it to a new corrective low of $3.00. This move briefly pierced the 20-day moving average—yesterday’s support—while carving out a lower daily high at $3.11 alongside the lower low. As of this writing, prices linger in the lower half of the day’s range, poised to notch the correction’s lowest daily close yet. The 20-day average itself is showing cracks, bending slightly downward, underscoring sellers’ firm control and keeping lower targets in play.

Next Support Zone in Sight

The path ahead points to a key lower target zone between $2.98 and $2.95, where multiple factors converge. It kicks off with a long-term anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) indicator, wraps up at the intersection of two critical lines (marked by a vertical on the chart), and includes a gap fill at $2.97. This setup makes it a high-probability area for potential support if selling persists, especially as the correction unfolds from the recent bearish reversal.

Channel Lines and Additional Support

Today’s low grazed the upper quarter line of a large falling channel, which acted as resistance during September’s swing highs. Approached now from above, it could flip to support, adding to the mix. The intersecting lower rising channel line serves as another target, triggered by the reversal after testing the extended top (by 25%) of the small rising channel. Interestingly, the 10-week average at $3.02 aligns closely with the 50-day average at $3.03, bolstering the immediate support cluster around $3.00-$3.03 and validating why buyers might step in here if the slide halts.

Upside Hurdles for Recovery

Any bullish counter would first need to reclaim the falling 20-day average at $3.16, then the 10-day line at $3.26—both descending and likely to drift lower in the coming days. These levels would act as resistance gates, requiring decisive breaks to signal a shift in momentum and open the door to higher ground.

Outlook and Key Levels

Sellers are steering the ship, with $2.95-$2.98 as the next big test if support crumbles further. Watch today’s close for confirmation of weakness or a sneaky rebound. The converging averages at $3.02-$3.03 offer a near-term lifeline, but until reclaimed, the bearish bias holds sway — keep an eye on those channel intersections for the final likely potential target for the current selloff.

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