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Natural Gas Price Forecast: Healthy Pullback in Prep for Bull Continuation

By:
Bruce Powers
Updated: Jun 16, 2024, 23:37 GMT+00:00

Natural gas retraced to 2.87, hitting the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with potential support around 2.84-2.82, signaling possible trend adjustment.

In this article:

Natural gas continued to pull back on Friday from its recent 3.16 trend high. A new daily low for the retracement of 2.87 was reached at the time of this writing. However, natural gas continues to trade near the lows of the day and could reach a lower price level before the week is over. Yesterday’s low completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and led to a bounce earlier in today’s session. Nonetheless, sellers took back control and continue to dominate.

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Uptrend Line Support Tested

The next area to watch for support activity is around the uptrend line and it was reached today. But if the line fails to hold the next lower price zone is around 2.84 to 2.82, consisting of a crossover of two trendlines and the 50% retracement, respectively. The uptrend line is a relatively short-term line having defined support of the rising trend starting from the April swing low of 1.58. It is used as a guide and is not so reliable without confirming evidence.

Given that the angle of ascent has been relatively steep, an adjustment to a lower slope angle would be common and healthy for the trend. Rising trends that start steep will eventually reach a point where demand can no longer support the price momentum and they will adjust to a lower slope. Alternatively, uptrends that start with a low slope angle typically see the angle increase as the trend progresses. Frequently, there are three angles that might be observed in either scenario.

Potentially Bearish Weekly Pattern

What about the weekly time frame? The weekly chart is about to close the week with a bearish shooting star pattern. But before being alarmed notice that three weeks ago ended with a similar candlestick pattern. It was followed by a resumption of the uptrend after a brief drop below the bearish week. That was followed by a three-week continuation of the uptrend until this week’s high of 3.16.

Pennant Pattern Points to 3.78

The breakout of the bull pennant just got started and if it follows through it projects an initial target up to 3.78. That target is above the 2023 high of 3.64. Nonetheless, the main point is that there looks to be more upside in natural gas for the current trend. The target may be reached or not, but it is supportive of a continuation higher above this week’s high once the retracement is complete.

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About the Author

Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.

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