Natural Gas Price Forecast July 25, 2017, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets gapped lower at the open on Monday, and then rallied enough to fill that gap. We are approaching the 24-hour exponential moving average as I record this video, which could cause a bit of resistance. I also believe that the $3.00 level above should continue to offer quite a bit of resistance as well, and I certainly believe that the oversupply of natural gas continues to overhang the market, and therefore I most certainly prefer shorting this market than anything else. I think given enough time we will go looking towards the $2.85 level, and I look at exhaustion as opportunities to get involved. Even if we break above the $3.00 level, I think there is far too much in the way of resistance to think that the market is going to go higher for any real length time.

Selling rallies

I believe in selling short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, and of course fresh, new lows. I think that the $2.85 level will be the target initially, but I would not be surprised at all to see this market break below there, and continue going towards the $2.75 level after that. I have no interest in buying the market, and I believe that the $3.10 region continues to offer the absolute “ceiling” in the market, as we continue to see oversupply in work against the value of natural gas longer-term, and there seems to be more than enough supply at the $3.10 level to abate any bullish pressure that we continue to see in the market. While we are getting close to the bottom of the most recent consolidation area, longer-term I think that the bottom breaks down so therefore I am patient enough to simply wait for selling opportunities.

NATGAS Video 25.7.17