Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural Gas falls again

The natural gas markets fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, filling the gap from below, something that I had been waiting to happen. Now the question as what happens next? We are at extremely low levels, so it’s likely that the market could bounce.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, January 23, 2019

Natural gas markets fall significantly during the Tuesday session after initially gapping. We are well below the 20 day EMA, pictured in green on the chart. The $3.00 level underneath offers support, and I think that we may get a little bit of a bounce due to the previous gap. However, I think rallies are selling opportunities above, especially near the $3.50 level. I think that extends all the way to the $3.75 level, so at this point I have no interest in buying this market whatsoever. I believe it is only a matter of time before the oversupply weighs upon the natural gas market, and that we start falling again. I you look at this rally that should come as a nice opportunity to get short again.

NATGAS Video 23.01.19

If we were to break down below the $2.85 level, then I think the market could unwind even further, perhaps as low as $2.75, maybe even $2.50 after that. Natural gas is oversupplied in the United States that it’s difficult to imagine that we can sustain any large move to the upside. I think at this point it’s only a matter of time before the sellers would squash that anyway, and any rally at this point would be based upon the weekly weather report if anything. That being the case, those will be short-lived anyway. At this point, we are through the major bullish time of year for this market, and therefore I believe we continue to see softness.

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