The US stock markets are negative in the premarket hours, as we are trying to price in a new war.
The Nasdaq 100 is negative in premarket trading, as you would expect with a war breaking out, but really at the end of the day it’s worth noting that it hasn’t completely fallen apart, and quite frankly the rush to safe-haven assets, at least as far as the typical ones are concerned, really hasn’t been as aggressive as one would think.
This is a good sign, but it doesn’t mean that you want to jump in with both feet to start buying. I think we go back to the game of “Can we hold 25,000?” to offer a buying opportunity.
The Dow Jones 30 initially gapped lower to show signs of significant weakness but found support just above the crucial 48,000 level. The 48,000 level of the course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has mattered in the past.
With that being the case, I think the fact that we are stabilizing here is actually a fairly good sign. Again, you don’t have to be the first person in the trade, so by all means, I’d be very cautious about jumping in with a huge position, but we could get a little bit of a significant opportunity, especially if the market were to rally and perhaps close the gap.
The S&P 500 is hanging around the 6,800 level in premarket trading and that is significant because this has been supported previously. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to be very choppy, and I think you’ve got a situation where we are more likely than not to be looking for some type of move outside of this 200-point range that we’ve been in.
As things stand right now, I’ll be looking closely to see if we can recapture the 50-day EMA. That would be a very positive sign that eventually we will break the 7,000 level. The fact that we aren’t lower right off the bat tells me that the market’s going to remain somewhat resilient.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.