Natural gas markets have collapsed during the trading session on Monday, as warmer temperatures coming to the United States of course has woken up the bears again, as the biggest driver of this market of course is going to be the weather forecast. Ultimately, this is a situation where we have to eventually find the bottom, but I’m not willing to be bothered with the market until we get down to the $2.00 level. At that point, I may take on a small long position, just simply due to the fact that it is so cheap, but I would not put a lot of money in this market.
As far as selling is concerned, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where you would chase the trade at this point. After all, we will eventually get a cold snap that comes into the picture in America, therefore I think a bounce is coming between now and the end of the winter. That being said, winter seems to have been put on hold in the short term, as I live in the northeastern part of the United States and am just now putting on a jacket.
If we can break above the $2.50 level, that might be a bullish sign as well, but right now I think the best we can do is wait for stabilization between now and the end of the year, and then reset our expectations for any bullish position. Selling the market right now is just chasing the trade, and not something I’m comfortable doing as this market tends to be extraordinarily volatile at times like this, and I just don’t see that changing very quickly.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.