Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas markets continue to waffle

Natural gas markets went back and forth during trading on Thursday, as we continue to hover around low pricing. The market of course has sold off drastically over the last several weeks, so selling at this point is a bit late.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, January 25, 2019

The natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we hover around the $3.00 level. At this point, the market probably needs to bounce a bit before it offers an opportunity, as this is most decidedly in a bearish market. With natural gas, the oversupply of such a systematic problem that I don’t look to buy this market overall, as there is more than enough natural gas out there to keep prices low for the longer-term. At this point, I suspect that the $3.25 level is resistance as it is not only where we have seen sellers, but we also now have the 50 day EMA parked there as well. Even if we did break above that level, then I think the $3.50 level would be the next resistance barrier.

NATGAS Video 25.01.19

All that being said, the $2.75 level underneath is massive support, and I think that if we were to break down below that level we would have a massive selloff. That could open the door to the $2.50 level next, perhaps even lower than that. The reality is that it’s easier to simply sell rallies than it is to try to press to the downside. It’s not that we can’t break down, it’s just that it’s going to be very difficult to do. We are just about done with the seasonably strong time of the year for natural gas, so quite frankly I don’t have any interest in trying to play any of the pops that will certainly happen.

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