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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, September 23, 2019

Natural gas markets have been slightly negative during the trading session on Friday, testing the $2.50 level which of course is very important. At this point, the 200 day EMA is sitting just above, and if we can break above that 200 day EMA, it’s likely that the market will continue to go much higher. The 50 day EMA underneath is tilting higher as well, and should be dynamically supportive on a break down, so therefore I’m simply waiting for an opportunity to start buying.

NATGAS Video 23.09.19

Beyond that, we have recently broken above the top of a bullish flag, and therefore it’s likely that the measured move could be met given enough time. Based upon the pole on the flag, we should be moving towards the $3.00 level, perhaps even above that. After this significant move, it’s likely that eventually value hunters come back due to the fact that the Europeans and the North Americans will both be looking to burn more natural gas in the short term as colder temperatures return.

If we do break down below the 50 day EMA, then the market will probably find buyers closer to the $2.25 level. In this market and this time of year, I find that to be very unlikely to happen but it is a potential outcome of this market. All things being equal, short-term pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities unless you have the ability to hold a position longer term, which means you could be looking at a move until early January.

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