Christopher Lewis
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Natural gas daily chart, August 15, 2019

Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we slammed into the $2.20 level which is an area that has been important more than once. Because of this, the fact that we pulled back should not be a very big surprise. All things being equal though, the only thing that I am paying attention to is the trend as natural gas is far oversupplied in the demand is very low. Beyond that, we have the 50 day EMA above which is psychologically and structurally resistant, hanging about the important $2.25 level.

NATGAS Video 15.08.19

Looking at the chart, I think the market is trying to find enough sellers to jump in and push lower, perhaps reaching towards the $2.00 level given enough time. That’s an area that I believe will continue to attract a lot of attention, and probably attract a lot of buying. If we can break down through there though, that opens up the door for another $0.25 or so to the downside, as the market will continue to find plenty of reasons to look negative. After all, we have over 14,000,000,000,000 ft.³ of natural gas in the ground in the United States alone. Having said all of that, we are getting relatively close to the time of year where markets start to rip to the upside, but that is still about two months away. I continue to fade rallies going forward at the first signs of trouble but recognize breaking the $2.00 level is a bit of a tall order.

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