Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rollover Gap Targets Higher Retracement

Rollover Gap Ignites Rally

Natural gas kicked off Wednesday with a large upside gap to a high of $3.86, driven by the switch to the December contract. This sharp move surpassed the 78.6% retracement at $3.80, opening a higher target zone around $3.93-$3.95. The zone includes a 127.2% projection from a rising ABCD pattern and the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. Trading holds in the top half of the range, likely closing near the high in a strong bullish position.

Resistance and Reversal Signal

A key resistance level is June’s interim swing high at $4.15, aligned with the 161.8% ABCD target. Clearing this point would trigger a trend reversal, confirming improving underlying demand within the prior downswing’s structure. Near-term support is today’s $3.75 low, with resistance at the $3.86 high. The gap’s size and follow-through suggest buyers are stepping in with conviction.

Support Alignment

Dynamic support centers on the 200-day moving average and a long-term uptrend line. The 200-day line is converging with the uptrend line, soon forming a tighter price area to reinforce support during any weakness. Holding above this confluence keeps the bullish outlook intact and supports the case for higher prices.

Bull Channel Reactivated

The advance from August’s swing low gained clear continuation today. The previous downtrend is broken, and the long-term uptrend line has been recaptured, putting the large rising bull channel from 2024’s low back in play. Pullbacks should now attract buyers, using lower prices to establish support and fuel the next leg higher.

Outlook and Key Levels

Today’s $3.75-$3.86 range will set the tone—holding support targets $3.93-$3.95, while a break risks retesting the 200-day eventually. The gap and breakout favor bulls, with $4.15 as the critical reversal trigger. New contract data will refine future analysis, but the channel structure and trendline reclaim point to sustained upside if support holds firm. Watch today’s close for confirmation of momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.