Natural Gas Price Outlook: Uptrend Development and Target Zone Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 12.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas will complete the week as an inside week as it has been moving relatively sideways this week with an upward bias. On Tuesday it made a 2.38 high following a bullish breakout above the short downtrend line and 34-Day EMA. Today looks to be a rest day with a retracement below Thursday’s low. Natural gas seems to be heading lower towards possible support next around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2.17, or a little higher. However, so far it is seeing some support around Wednesday’s low of 2.25.

Watch for Bullish Reversal off Retracement

Once the retracement is complete natural gas should be ready to progress higher as it continues to develop the uptrend started on from the June 1 swing low. Support was seen at the lower trendline of an ascending parallel trend channel. The logical continuation of the channel is for price to rise back to the top rising trendline across the top of the channel.

Convergence of Multiple Indications Creates Higher Target Zone

A primary target zone is highlighted in red, and it is now converging with the top trend line thereby increasing the chance it will be reached once the rally continues. That price zone is roughly between 2.77 and 2.83. Plus, natural gas now contains the 100-Day EMA, currently at 2.83. The two prior rallies had advances of over 29%. If the current rally at least matches a 29% advance, natural gas will be in the highlighted red zone. Conversely, the first rally in February was over 50%.

Bearish Potential Needs to be Considered

Alternatively, natural gas turns bearish on a daily close below 2.14. Then further still on a drop below the May 5 swing low at 2.03. Whether it keeps falling from there remains to be seen as it is still within a developing consolidation bottom (potential). Otherwise, if it keeps falling the recent consolidation phase turns into a bearish trend continuation pattern. And it could be argued that recent price action (ascending trend channel) is a bear flag within the downtrend.

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