Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop Down 25% for the Week

Natural gas prices continued to break down falling 25% for the week, and dropping 3% following Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. The weather is expected much warmer than normal throughout the entire United States for the next 2-weeks which should put downward pressure on natural gas demand.

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, natural gas prices dropped falling 3%, through to support near the November lows at 4.65, which is now resistance. Target support is the July lows at 3.60. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is reversed and turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is about to generate a crossover sell signal.

Natural gas in storage was 3,564 Bcf as of Friday, November 26, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net decrease of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 50 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 375 Bcf less than last year at this time and 86 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,650 Bcf. At 3,564 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.