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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Reverse Thursday’s Gains Falling Below Resistance

No tropical cyclones are expected
David Becker


Natural gas prices reversed Thursday rise, falling 1.5% on Friday. Prices rallied following a report from the EIA that showed that gas inventories rose less than expected. Over the next 48-hours there are no expectations for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the latest report from NOAA which should increase cooling demand.


Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices reversed Thursday rise. Prices closed below a trend line that was resistance at 2.22. Additional resistdance is seen near the August highs at 2.33. Medium term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.


Supply is unchanged along with Demand

Supply is unchanged according to data from the EIA after reaching a new record last week, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as in the previous report week, averaging 96.0 Bcf per day. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week after hitting a record high of 92.1 Bcf per day last week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 4% from last week.

Total demand remains flat. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas was unchanged from the previous report week, averaging 71.0 Bcf per day according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation was flat, averaging 41.4 Bcf/d. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 4%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased by 2%.

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