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David Becker

Natural gas prices closed higher on Tuesday but initially made a lower low, and was unable to recapture short-term resistance. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal over the next 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There is no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. Production in the US decreased in April by the most in 8-years.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher and continue to consolidate at the lower end of the recent range. Prices are hovering just below resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1.77. Target support is seen near the June lows at 1.51. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average near 1.89. Short term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a short term sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive to neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a decelerating trajectory which points to consolidation.


Production Drops in April


Production of natural gas decreased in the United States in April 2020 by 2.6 billion cubic feet per day according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Monthly Natural Gas Production Report. Production declines of that magnitude usually arise only in natural disasters such as hurricanes: the drop in natural gas production was the largest monthly decrease since Hurricane Isaac-related shut-ins in August 2012

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