Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip as Warm Weather Cools

Natural gas prices edged lower on Monday, as the 8-14 day forecast moderated.  Prices fell through support now resistance near the 200-day moving average at 2.87. Target support on natural gas is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.67. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.  The RSI (relative strength index) moved lower with price action reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

Gas Inventories Rose More than Expected

Working gas in storage was 2,152 Bcf as of Friday, June 29, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for an increase of 75 Bcf. Stocks were 717 Bcf less than last year at this time and 493 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,645 Bcf. At 2,152 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Overall consumption rises slightly

Overall consumption rises slightly on increased residential and commercial demand. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 3% week over week. Industrial sector consumption increased by 1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 22%. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3%.

U.S. LNG exports increase week over week

U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. Six LNG vessels departed the United States from June 21 through June 27 all from the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal. One tanker (LNG-carrying capacity 3.6 Bcf) was loading at Sabine Pass terminal last Wednesday