Natural Gas Prices Break Out

Key Insights

• Natural Gas prices continue to trend higher
• Rig count Increased
• The weather is expected to be normal

On Friday, natural gas prices broke out above trend line resistance. The weather is expected to be normal during the next 6-10 and 8-14 days, with warm on bost Coasts. The weather situation should ease heating demand.

According to Baker Hughes, the total rig count for oil and natural gas increased by 3, to 673, compared to expectations it would increase by 4. Total natural gas rigs increased by one to 138, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis

On Friday, natural gas prices closed higher, breaking out above trend line resistance. Target resistance is seen near the October highs at 6.46.

Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices have moved back into overbought territory with the Fast Stochastic printing a reading of 93, above the overbought trigger level of 80.

Medium-term momentum has turned positive. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index makes a crossover buy signal. This scenario occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average, crosses above the 9-day moving average of the MACD line.