Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Futures Dip Amid Warm Weather Forecast

James Hyerczyk
Updated: Dec 12, 2023, 14:03 UTC

US natural gas futures stabilize following Monday's steep decline in prices as mild weather reduces heating demand expectations.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast

In this article:


  • Weather forecasts drive natural gas price fluctuations.
  • High inventory and production affect market balance.
  • Global factors contribute to natural gas market volatility.

US Natural Gas Futures React to Weather Forecasts and Market Conditions

US natural gas futures have stabilized on Tuesday, with traders closely analyzing the latest weather forecasts suggesting much warmer-than-normal temperatures in the upcoming days. According to NatGasWeather, the next 15 days are expected to bring exceptionally mild weather across the US, leading to significantly reduced demand for natural gas.

Weather Shift Triggers Price Fluctuations

Monday saw a sharp decline in natural gas futures, primarily driven by updated weather forecasts indicating milder temperatures. The shift from earlier predictions of a colder winter, which had stoked fears of supply shortages, to now milder conditions, has lessened the demand for heating, resulting in a sell-off in the market.

Market Dynamics and LNG Exports Influence

The natural gas market is currently navigating through a phase characterized by high inventory levels due to a mild previous winter and a consistent increase in production throughout 2023. The United States’ growing role as a significant LNG exporter is also influencing domestic supply and prices, signaling a move towards a more balanced market.

Global Factors and Volatile Outlook

The global demand for LNG, along with geopolitical tensions and disruptions in energy supply chains, continues to add to the market’s volatility. Analysts anticipate continued volatility, given the mild start to the winter and high production levels, suggesting a bearish trend in the near term.

Bearish Sentiment Amidst High Production

Recent weeks have seen bearish signals in US natural gas futures, hinting that the highest prices for this winter might have already been reached in November. With robust production and significant gas reserves, further price reductions are likely as the US heads deeper into the heating season.

Technical Analysis

Daily Natural Gas

The current market sentiment for Natural Gas is bearish, as indicated by the analysis of various technical indicators. The current daily price of Natural Gas is $2.435, which is significantly below both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, at $3.301 and $3.251 respectively. This considerable gap below the moving averages typically indicates a strong bearish trend.

Additionally, the current price is below both the minor resistance level at $2.590 and the main resistance level at $2.690. Being below these resistance levels suggests that the market has not yet found enough bullish momentum to reverse the downward trend.

Overall, the positioning of Natural Gas prices relative to key moving averages and resistance levels portrays a market that is currently under bearish pressure. Investors and traders might expect this trend to continue in the short term unless there are significant changes in market drivers or sentiment. ​

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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