Natural Gas Upswing Potential: ABCD and Measured Move Pattern.

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 15.05.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas started showing little strength today as it broke through resistance of its 34-Day exponential moving average (EMA) and above its prior mini swing high of 2.18 hit three days ago. At the time of this writing, it remains just below the 34-Day line. A daily close above the 34-Day line is showing strength, and a daily close above 2.18 confirms a continuation of the developing bullish ABCD pattern.

Bullish Outside Day

It is interesting to note that natural gas started the session by falling to a four-day low. However, it quickly found support to spring it back the other way, enough to move to an eight-day high. This is bullish behavior as sentiment switched from clearly bearish to bullish within one day. It has created not just an outside day, but an outside three-day pattern. What happens next will be key to determining whether the bullish nature of today’s price action follows through to the upside.

Inside Week Sets Up

An inside week can be used as a signal. Therefore, a breakout above last week’s high of 2.34 is bullish, while a drop below the low end of the range at 2.14 is bearish. A decisive move above the high confirms a continuation of the rising ABCD pattern. That pattern targets 2.61. At that point, the CD leg of the move matched the AB leg reflecting symmetry between swings.

New Smaller Rising Pattern

As of today, there is a smaller developing ABCD pattern, where today’s low is the C point, and the completion is up at 2.58, just shy of the larger ABCD pattern target. First, natural gas will have to break above the recent trend high of 2.53. That will trigger a bullish trend continuation of the developing uptrend.

Higher Target

There are a few targets above the initial 2.61 target. Most obvious is the possible completion of a measured move where the current advance matches the first advance off the February trend low. It matches at a target of 3.00. That target is also very close to the initial swing high of 3.03.

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