Christopher Lewis
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Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the week but has turned around to show signs of life in order to form a hammer. If we break down below the bottom of that hammer, it will not only break this candlestick bottom, but would also break the bottom of the candlestick from a month ago. In other words, it is a little bit of a short-term “double bottom” that being broken would of course open up the floodgates to the downside. I do believe that eventually this is what happens, based upon the cyclicality of the market.

NATGAS Video 12.04.21

After all, a lot of people are not going to be using as much natural gas going forward as temperatures have been rising, and therefore the cyclical trade should push this market to the downside. The $2.25 level is a target, followed by the $2.00 level. In other words, I think that we have nice target underneath. Quite frankly, I look at any rally at this point with suspicion, it would be more than willing to sell it on signs of exhaustion.

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Currently, I believe that the absolute “ceiling in the market” is close to the $3.00 level, and therefore I would be all over shorting that price if we got it. I do not think we do though, and at this point I think we are simply working off some of the massive selloff pressure that we had seen over the last couple of months. Going forward, it is not until about October that I would be looking to buy this market.

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