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Christopher Lewis
Gas natural

Natural gas markets have broken down significantly during the course of the week to slice through the $2.60 level, and then reaching towards the $2.40 level. All things being equal, when you look at the longer-term chart you can make an argument for a bit of a head and shoulders, and therefore we could see a bit of a sellout. This makes quite a bit of sense as we are trading the March contract.

NATGAS Video 25.01.21

A breakdown below the $2.30 level could open up a move down towards the lows again, perhaps reaching as low as the $1.60 level. That being said, it does not necessarily mean that we get there right away, but as temperatures rise, demand for natural gas will of course plummet. Furthermore, the entire idea of stimulus making natural gas take off to the upside is a bit of a laugh, as it has not done it over the years and of course we are still oversupplied when it comes to natural gas it is not even funny.

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I believe that rallies are to be sold into, especially near the $2.80 level which is already seen a significant amount of selling pressure in the past. At this point, any time we get a bit of a rally, it should be looked at with suspicion because the oversupply of natural gas is more of a longer-term structural problem than anything else. With this being the case and of course warmer temperatures, I only sell natural gas and have no interest in trying to buy it. In fact, I do not even have a scenario where I would be a buyer of this commodity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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