Natural gas markets have had a positive week, for the first time in a month. The market had collapsed for the previous three weekly canvases, so now it looks like we are trying to stabilize.
Natural gas markets have bounced a bit from the 50 Week EMA, slowing down the massive selloff that we have seen. Natural gas markets are finally focusing on the United States again because the Americans cannot import enough LNG to change the problems they have due to a lack of Russian natural gas. Because of this, I think we have a situation where the market could bounce a bit, but that bounce more likely than not will end up being a selling opportunity.
I believe that the $6.50 level is an area that could cause a little bit of hesitation, and if you were to look on the daily chart, the $7.00 level also offers a bit of selling pressure. In other words, I think this is a market where there will be plenty of people willing to step in and fade rallies.
On the other end, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for this past week and the one before it, then the bottom would fall out of natural gas and it’s likely that we test the $5.00 level, $4.00 level, and perhaps beyond. After all, natural gas is not exactly rare to find in the US, and if we are fully focusing on America momentum makes very little sense at this point. I believe that by the end of summer, natural gas will more likely be much closer to $4.50 than it is now. That being said, we have oversold this market quite drastically, so a short-term balance does make a bit of sense.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.