Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural gas markets rallied slightly after gapping lower

Natural gas markets kicked off the week by gapping lower but have turned around to show signs of life. The market looks likely to continue to struggle at this point, but we might be a little bit oversold.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas weekly chart, August 12, 2019

Natural gas markets have gapped a bit to the downside to kick off the week, reached a bit lower, and then turned around to recover some of those losses. I think at this point we are starting to get close to a significant support level, but if we were to break down below the $2.00 level, the market probably drops about $0.30  Lower. All things being equal, we are in a downtrend and it should continue to be so for the short term. The longer-term outlook is a little bit different in the sense that we have a cyclical nature to this market, and in a few months we will have a major spike in the natural gas markets, as demand will pick up for winter.

NATGAS Video 12.08.19

To the downside, we are getting at extraordinarily stretch so I like shorting signs of exhaustion that I can take advantage of. If we were to break above the $2.50 level though, that could change the attitude of the market in general, sending this market higher. All things being equal though, I still believe that the sellers run this market therefore you are going to continue to look for selling opportunities. Having reached this low though, the market is probably going to be easier to trade from a shorter-term standpoint simply selling the signs of exhaustion as they occur after short-term rallies. I think longer-term traders are going to have to wait for that winter bounce to get involved for anything substantial.

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