Natural gas gained some ground as traders focused on weather forecasts, took some profits after the recent pullback and reacted to recent developments in the Middle East.
Natural gas made an attempt to settle above the $3.00 level but lost momentum and pulled back. In case natural gas declines below the $2.90 level, it will move towards the support, which is located in the $2.75 – $2.80 range.
On the upside, a move above the resistance at $3.00 – $3.05 will push natural gas towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $3.20 – $3.25 range.
WTI oil rebounded as U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes despite ceasefire. That said, negotiations continue, although it remains to be seen whether U.S. and Iran are moving towards a deal.
At this point, it looks that U.S. and Iran are ready to extend the ceasefire for two months. Reports suggest that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while U.S. will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that negotiators will find common ground and reach a deal.
It should be noted that Iran’s nuclear program will be the key topic of any negotiations. At this point, it looks that U.S. is ready to postpone the detailed discussions of the fate of Iran’s nuclear program to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. in this scenario, the sides will have two more months to craft a comprehensive deal.
Iran also wants to get back its frozen assets, which is not surprising as the country’s economy is under huge pressure. It remains to be seen whether U.S. is ready to provide a financial lifeline to the opponent.
Israel’s operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon complicates negotiations as Iran wants Israel to be part of the ceasefire deal.
WTI oil pulled back from $109 to $90 in just five trading sessions, so it’s not surprising to see that traders rushed to take some profits off the table after U.S. and Iranian forces attacked each other despite ceasefire. Some traders decided to use the strong pullback as an opportunity to increase their long positions.
In case WTI oil climbs back above the $95.00 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the $97.00 – $97.50 range. On the support side, the nearest support level for WTI oil is located in the $91.00 – $91.50 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at $84.00 – $84.50.
Brent oil rebounded towards the psychologically important $100 level amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
If Brent oil manages to settle above the $100 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $103.00 – $103.50. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, a move below the support at $96.00 – $96.50 will push Brent oil towards the next support at $91.00 – $91.50.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.