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James Hyerczyk
New Zealand Dollars

The New Zealand Dollar is trading steady early Thursday after breaking sharply lower the previous session in reaction to an aggressive rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Policymakers caught traders off-guard early Wednesday when they announced a surprise 50-basis point cut to their official cash rate. Traders were looking for a 25-basis point reduction.

At 23:58 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6450, up 0.0005 or +0.07%.

The heavy selling pressure helped take out a number of bottoms, confirming the already established downtrend before finally stopping at .6378, just above the January 20, 2016 main bottom at .6346.

Panic selling? No. Reaction to surprise news? Yes. Sell stops triggered? Yes.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6378 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .6791. This is highly unlikely. However, the NZD/USD is down 14 sessions from the last main top, which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6588 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is .6791 to .6378. If there is a counter-trend rally then its retracement zone at .6585 to .6633 will become the primary upside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

The NZD/USD settled close to the mid-point of the day’s range on Wednesday, which means the next move will be determined by momentum. This is understandable since it often takes a few days to settle down after a high volatility trading session.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6445 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of yesterday’s low at .6378. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the January 1, 2016 main bottom at .6346. This level is another potential trigger point for an acceleration into the August 24, 2015 main bottom at .6207.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6445 will signal the return of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the downtrending Gann angle at .6511. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this angle. It has been guiding the NZD/USD lower since the main top at .6791 on July 19.

Overtaking .6791 will indicate the selling is getting weaker or the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the short-term 50% level at .6585, followed by the .6588 minor top.

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