NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Downside Momentum Targets .6255 then .6207

The New Zealand Dollar posted a volatile two-sided trade on Wednesday before closing lower as traders reacted to central bank news in New Zealand and geopolitical events from the United States.

Helping to boost the currency early in the session was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to hold interest rates steady, while saying it will cut again “if needed”, suggesting it’s on pause. Nonetheless, investors are still pricing in a 70% chance of a November rate cut.

At 01:27 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6277, up 0.0007 or +0.11%.

The Kiwi was crushed late in the session after the U.S. Dollar found broad support as investors welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s hints of progress toward a trade deal with China and discounted the prospect of an impeachment probe making much headway in the short-term.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6451 will change the main trend to up. A move through .6255 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

If .6255 is taken out then .6349 will become the new main top and short-sellers are likely to trail their buy stops just above this level.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6349 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is .6451 to .6255. Its 50% level or pivot at .6353 is potential resistance.

The intermediate range is .6588 to .6255. Its retracement zone at .6422 to .6461 is strong resistance. It stopped the rally at .6451 on September 12.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6277, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term downtrending angle. This angle, moving down at a rate of .0001 since the .6791 top on July 19, comes in at .6301 today.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6301 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a test of September 20 bottom at .6255.

Taking out .6255 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the August 24, 2015 main bottom at .6207.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6301 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for a rally to possibly extend into the minor top at .6349 and the short-term pivot at .6353.