NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 10, 2019 Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar early Wednesday shortly after the release of Chinese inflation data and well ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress. Traders will also get the opportunity to react to the minutes from the U.S. central bank’s June 18-19 policy meeting. Investors will be listening for clues as to whether Federal Reserve policymakers feel the need to cut interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting, as widely expected, or if they feel the economy is strong enough to pass on the rate cut.

At 04:08 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6595, down 0.0012 or -0.19%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next main bottom is at .6487. A trade through .6720 and .6727 will change the main trend to up.

The NZD/USD is down seven days from the July 1 main top so today’s session begins with the Forex pair in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This may not lead to a change in trend, but it could trigger a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The main range is .6487 to .6727. Its retracement zone at .6607 to .6579 is controlling the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6607.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6607 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the downtrending Gann angle at .6657. This could happen if Powell’s testimony is dovish.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6607 will signal the presence of sellers. The next target is a cluster of numbers at .6587, .6579 and .6577.

We could see a technical bounce on the first test of .6587 to .6577. However, if .6577 fails as support, then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at .6532. This is the last potential support angle before the .6487 main bottom.