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NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 28, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jun 28, 2019, 07:35 UTC

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6687. Essentially, the 50% level at .6710 and the uptrending Gann angle at .6687 are holding the NZD/USD in a range. Look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over .6710. Taking out .6687 could signal the start of a downtrend.

New Zealand Notes

The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher on Friday and is currently in a position to post a nearly 2% gain for the week. Several factors are contributing to this week’s stellar gains again the U.S. Dollar.

Since the June 18 Federal Reserve meeting, the Kiwi has been grinding higher on the hope of one or perhaps two interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank in July. Rate cuts tend to make the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable investment.

The Kiwi received a further boost mid-week when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged. Finally, also underpinning the currency are hopes that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit will bring the two economic powerhouses closer to the end of the trade dispute.

At 07:17 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6709, up 0.0007 or +0.11%.

NZDUSD
Daily NZD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up on Wednesday when buyers took out the previous main top at .6682 and reaffirmed when they rallied through .6686. The Forex pair is now bumping into a major 50% level.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through .6487. This is highly unlikely today, however, today is the tenth day up from the last main bottom. This puts the NZD/USD inside the window of time to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is .6939 to .6481. Its retracement zone at .6710 to .6746 is the primary upside target. We’re looking for short-sellers to show up on a test of this area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6687.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6687 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the main 50% level at .6710. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level.

Taking out .6710 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could actually trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target a resistance cluster at .6762 to .6764.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome or sustain a rally over .6710 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the uptrending Gann angle at .6687 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under .6687 so don’t be surprised by an acceleration to the downside. The next major target angle comes in at .6587.

Overview

Essentially, the 50% level at .6710 and the uptrending Gann angle at .6687 are holding the NZD/USD in a range. Look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over .6710. Taking out .6687 could signal the start of a downtrend.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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