NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – September 3, 2019 Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at .6308.
James Hyerczyk
NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar is under pressure on Tuesday as trading intensifies after Monday’s U.S. holiday. The price action indicates that investors are already pricing in future rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), perhaps as early as its next meeting on September 24. Traders are also likely pricing in a dovish statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) later in today’s session.

At 03:34 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6275, down 0.0033 or -0.52%.

Also from Bloomberg, “Hedge funds are ramping up their short bets against the New Zealand Dollar. Net short speculative positions against the kiwi rose to their highest since November, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.”

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The current prolonged move down began with the last main top at .6791 on July 19. Over the past week, the selling pressure strengthened when traders took out .6378, the low put in after the surprise 50-basis point rate cut on August 7 and the January 20, 2016 main bottom at .6346.

The NZD/USD is in no position to change the main trend to up, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, it remains inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern won’t change the trend to up, but it could signal that the selling pressure is easing.

The minor trend is also down. The last minor top at .6588 was formed on August 6, the last session before the RBNZ rate cut.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at .6308.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6308 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next major downside target is the August 24, 2015 main bottom at .6207.

Bullish Scenario

After making another lower-low, overcoming .6308 will put the NZD/USD in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This could trigger an intraday short-covering rally with the January 20, 2016 main bottom at .6346 the next potential upside target. Overcoming this level will indicate the short-covering is getting stronger.

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All

Top Promotions

Top Brokers

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
RISK DISCLAIMER
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
FOLLOW US