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James Hyerczyk
New Zealand Dollars

The New Zealand Dollar started out higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, but then the rally stalled as traders expressed doubts over whether the U.S. and China would be able to reach a “Phase One” trade agreement before new U.S. tariffs against China kick in on December 15. Additionally, traders continue to await definitive news on whether China will retaliate after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill supporting pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.

At 19:43 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6416, down 0.0003 or -0.04%.

Traders said the slow post-holiday trade also influenced the price action with many of the major players sitting on the sidelines until Monday. On Thursday, U.S. banks were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend turned up early Friday when buyers nudged through the previous main top at .6437. The buying wasn’t that strong, however, because of the low volume, and the rally stalled at .6438. A trade through .6395 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6403 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is .6466 to .6322. Its retracement zone at .6411 to .6394 is support. The lower or 50% level at .6394 is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The main range is .6204 to .6466. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .6335 to .6304 will become the primary downside target.


Short-Term Outlook

The NZD/USD needs to hold the short-term retracement zone at .6411 to .6394 in order to generate the upside momentum needed to trigger a rally into the November 4 top at .6466.

A sustained move over .6411 will indicate the presence of buyers, while a sustained move under .6394 will signal the presence of sellers.

Trading between .6394 and .6411 will indicate neutral sentiment.

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