NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over .6939, Weakens Under .6865

The New Zealand Dollar is climbing on Wednesday after recovering from an early session setback, putting it in a position to challenge its highest level since March 2019. The Kiwi continued to be supported by coronavirus vaccine hopes after Moderna Inc announced encouraging preliminary results in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic on Monday. This followed a similar announcement by Pfizer/BioNTech last week.

At 07:58 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6911, up 0.0019 or +0.27%.

A weaker U.S. Dollar is also supporting its New Zealand counterpart. The greenback was pressured on Tuesday after a government report showed weaker-than-expected retail sales data. Additionally, the Kiwi Dollar has been flying high since last week when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) triggered a reversal to the upside by playing down the chance of negative interest rates.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6919 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest main bottom at .6589. This is highly unlikely, but given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the NZD/USD is in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6811 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is .6811 to .6919. Its 50% level or pivot at .6865 is potential support, but if it fails, we could see an acceleration to the downside.

The second minor range is .6589 to .6919. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next 50% level at .6754.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

A move through .6919 could trigger a surge into the March 21, 2019 main top at .6939. Taking out this level could create enough upside momentum to trigger an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the next major target the June 6, 2018 main top at .7061.

On the downside, the key level to watch is the minor pivot at .6865. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the minor bottom at .6811. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .6754 the next likely downside target.